Modeling the Factors Affecting the First Birth in the Family's' Fertility in Hamedan Province
Alireza Soltanian
Department of Biostatistics, Non-communicable Disease Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences and Health Services, Hamadan, Iran.
Saeedeh Davar
Department of Biostatistics, University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Maasoumeh Mahdi Akhgar *
Department of Biostatistics, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences and Health Services, Hamadan, Iran.
Hussein Mahjub
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Health Hamadan University of Medical Sciences and Health Services, Hamadan, Iran.
Manoochehr Karami
Department of Epidemiology, Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences and Health Services, Hamadan, Iran.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Background: The role of fertility as the most important determinant of demographic fluctuations has given more importance to its studies compared with other demographic phenomena. In this context, different indexes are used to measure fertility patterns where the index of the first birth after marriage has received much attention.
Materials and Methods: This was a cross-sectional (descriptive-analytic) study in which the fertility data of women are converted into a fictitious cohort and investigated. In this study, married woman in the age group of 15 to 49 years in 500 families in Hamedan were selected. In this study, a researcher-made questionnaire was used that included information related to the number of live births (fertility) and factors related to it (i.e. date of marriage, age, the first pregnancy, number of unwanted pregnancies, average interval between children, and the use of contraceptives). Univariate and multivariate survival analysis was carried out for the interval between marriage and the first birth. In the univariate section, using Kaplan-Meir method and log-rank test, survival functions of the interval between the first births after marriage in different predictive variables were compared.
Result: Mean age of mothers at the first birth was 22.04±4.357 years and mean number of live births was 2.18±0.904. The first marriage age of women, parental education, women’s employment, the use of contraceptives, and the number of live births were at a significance level of 5%.
Conclusion: It can be concluded that parental education, women’s employment, and use of contraceptives play important roles in population growth.
Keywords: First birth interval, drugs, parametric models, cox regression, contraceptives